Heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators for spatial autoregressive models

In the presence of heteroskedasticity, conventional test statistics based on the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator lead to incorrect inference results for the linear regression model. Given that heteroskedasticity is common in cross-sectional data, the test statistics based on various forms of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrices (HCCMs) have been developed in the literature. In contrast to the standard linear regression model, heteroskedasticity is a more serious problem for spatial econometric models, generally causing inconsistent extremum estimators of model coefficients. This paper investigates the finite sample properties of the heteroskedasticity-robust generalized method of moments estimator (RGMME) for a spatial econometric model with an unknown form of heteroskedasticity. In particular, it develops various HCCM-type corrections to improve the finite sample properties of the RGMME and the conventional Wald test. The Monte Carlo results indicate that the HCCM-type corrections can produce more accurate results for inference on model parameters and the impact effects estimates in small samples.     

ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators with the aim to provide early signals for turning points in the euro area headline and core inflation cycles. The headline (core) ALICE leads the reference cycle by three (four) months and the lead times extend to five (nine) months based on longer-leading series. Both ALICE indicators signalled turning points in the inflation cycles ex post and also performed well in a simulated real-time exercise. Moreover, in particular the headline ALICE also appeared to be useful for quantitative forecasting of the direction and level of inflation.     

An Exploratory analysis of flight delay propagation in China

Delay propagation is the flight departure delay caused by the arrival delay of pre-segment flight. Chinese airline market has suffered very poor on-time performance (OTP) in recent years. It is, however, unclear whether delay propagation prevails as one major source for such problem. This study first aims to empirically quantify delay propagation in the Chinese airline market. Specifically, we shed light on heterogenous levels of delay propagations across different airports and airlines. Then, the distinct delay propagation patterns in China are also discussed and compared with other developed airline markets (e.g., the US and Europe). Our estimation is based on OTP data for over 12 million Chinese flights covering the 2015–2017 period. Specifically, it is found that 10 min arrival delay of pre-segment flight within 1 hr before the departure lead to an average of 7.49 mins delay propagation for subsequent departure flight. Arrival delay of earlier pre-segments (1–2 and 2–3 hr before the departure) leads to much less delay propagation, due to longer ground buffer. Chinese airlines arrange longer ground and flight buffer than that of the US airlines to prevent the delay propagation from accumulating along the subsequent flights in a day. Thus, unlike the US market, delay propagation is not the major reason for poor OTP in China. In addition, delay propagation is less prevailing at the Chinese hub airport. This is because China has relied on point-to-point network, which does not require sophisticated schedule coordination. And the local passengers at these Chinese hub airports have higher time value such that the Chinese airlines also try to improve OTP at these hub airports to better serve these lucrative but time-sensitive local passengers. Unlike the European LCCs, Spring Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier (LCC) in China, outperforms major full-service carriers (FSCs) in controlling delay propagation. This finding may also apply to other Northeast Asian LCCs sharing common operational characteristics as Spring Airlines. Last, we find that airlines purposely tolerate moderate departure delays of up to 15 min, which is the threshold that defines delays, no matter whether the pre-segment flight arrives late or on-time. The relevant policy and managerial implications are also discussed.     

Beyond classical van Westendorp: Assessing price sensitivity for variants of algae-based meat substitutes

Food product innovations are characterized by high flop rates. In an early development stage, manifold product formulations seem feasible. To determine the most promising product option, market research can help, but is frequently considered too costly and complex. We assess the applicability of the van Westendorp approach, an inexpensive and simple method, for guiding early product design and pricing decisions for novel foods. Findings from a between-subject experiment for meat substitutes consisting of different shares of micro-algae indicate that micro-algae, while a cost driver, has little effect on price preferences. Implications for novel food product design, market research, and retailing are discussed.     

The price discovery role of day traders in futures market: Evidence from different types of day traders

Using proprietary account-level transaction data in the futures market where day traders are self-declared ex ante, this study investigates whether day traders enhance price discovery at the market level. From a natural classification of day traders, we find that heterogeneous day traders have differential effects on price discovery. Self-declared day traders, who benefit from low margin requirement, do not improve price discovery measured by information share. In contrast, non-declared traders, who are not self-declared as day traders, improve price discovery. Their positive impacts on price discovery are particularly significant during periods of high volatility and arrival of new information. Overall, a margin stimulating policy may encourage more day trading, but may also attract overconfident investors, especially inexperienced ones, and who do not enhance price discovery.     

Does tourism really cause stress? A natural experiment utilizing ArcGIS Survey123

ABSTRACT

Tourism related stress has recently been revealed as an issue for tourism host community residents. Prior studies have relied on directly asking residents if tourism caused them stress, resulting in possible participant priming. This study utilized the ArcGIS Survey123 app to collect data on resident stress from a community with high levels of tourism visitation and a community with low levels of tourism visitation. During the study, researchers never mentioned tourism. Half of study participants in the community with high tourism visitation discussed tourism directly as a stressor, accounting for almost 5% of all stressful experiences, while no participants in the community with low tourism visitation mentioned tourism as a stressor. Geospatial data revealed that tourism related stressors occurred outside of the ‘tourism zone’ in the community with high tourism visitation, and tourism related stressors mirrored perceived tourism impacts measured in a post experiment survey of study participants.     

Network structure,portfolio diversification and systemic risk

We investigate the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk, where the network effect is incorporated. We analyze three kinds of interbank networks, namely, random networks, small-world networks and scale-free networks. We show that the effect of portfolio diversification on banking systemic risk depends on interbank network structures and shock types. First, systemic risk increases first and then reduces with the increase of the level of portfolio diversification in the case of the individual shock. Second, in the case of the systemic shock, systemic risk reduces with the increases of the level of portfolio diversification. Third, banking systems with scale-free network structures are the most stable, and those with small-world network structures are the most vulnerable.     

针对车辆AEB系统失效和误作用场景的研究

本文基于预期功能安全,采用功能分解方法,总结出部分车辆自动紧急制动(AEB)系统失效和误作用场景,并从中选取典型场景作为测试场景,开展不同车型的实车道路试验,总结出AEB系统的缺陷与隐患分类。希望此类研究能为AEB系统失效和误作用测试标准的制定提供参考。     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法，从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明，我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高，各市场间联动性较强；市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应，两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性；作为我国金融系统的风险中心，货币市场始终处于风险溢出方，但在金融危机时期，其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱，而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是，当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高，市场间风险相关性较强，需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。